The relative Niño3.4 index for the week of 2–8 November 2026 is +2.75 °C, in the very strong El Niño range on the BMKG scale. The IOD stands at +0.75 °C, above the positive IOD threshold, and the 30-day SOI at -15.1, below the threshold, leaning El Niño. A single week is not enough to declare an El Niño or La Niña event: the Bureau of Meteorology requires monthly values to stay beyond the threshold. Source Bureau of Meteorology Australia, compiled and verified by IPOSS, updated weekly.
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| Week ending | Niño3.4 (°C) | IOD (°C) |
|---|---|---|
| 8 November 2026 | +2.75 | +0.75 |
| 1 November 2026 | +2.88 | +0.73 |
| 25 October 2026 | +2.84 | +0.69 |
| 18 October 2026 | +2.74 | +0.88 |
| 11 October 2026 | +2.78 | +0.88 |